Maryland's Most Important Piece May Not Stay

If Melo Trimble, Diamond Stone, and Robert Carter are smart they will stay at Maryland one more year.  According to Chad Ford's rankings on ESPN.com Melo and Carter are outside of the Top 50 prospects (Melo is #51 and Carter is #59), which means that they have a good shot at not being drafted if they decide to leave Maryland.  Stone is #18 in these rankings, which means he would probably get drafted somewhere in 2016, but someone at Maryland needs to show him what Jordan Williams is doing right now and it may make him think twice.  If all of them came back, though, they would all have a chance to increase their draft status by increasing their individual and team success.  Melo would finally have some backcourt depth to give him more rest during the game with the addition of freshman PG Anthony Cowan and SG Kevin Huerter.  Carter can have more exposure by not having to share minutes with Jake Layman, and by looking at Robert Carter's freshman year picture at Georgia Tech you would have to assume that he would put in the work to improve even more for next year.  Finally, Stone would get one more year to improve his rebounding ability and prove that he is a Top 10 pick with Melo and Carter helping him out in that capacity.  Finally, if all three came back Maryland would once again be a preseason Top 5 team with experience, and the shared team success they could generate in 2016-2017 would raise all ships come next year's draft.  But for all this short term prognosticating about whether or not these three will stay, Maryland should be looking at some telling portents about another member of the Terps that point to him leaving this program in the future.

Unless the Terps make at least one Final Four appearance within the next three years, Mark Turgeon may decide not to stay in College Park past his initial contract.  It has been apparent in some of Turgeon's press conferences this season that he seems tired.  Not that pissed off tired that comes from a losing streak, which the Terps suffered late in the season, but that dejected tired that comes from something missing in his personal life. This conjecture comes from a nugget that he gave in his press conference before the Kansas game.  Around the 6:00 mark Turgeon is asked about his time at Wichita State, and he professed his love for the city of Wichita stating that his wife loves the city and it was where his kids were born.  Then there is this Washington Post article by Kent Babb from June that outlines Turgeon's internal battle between his professional success and his personal life.  The article describes how coaching four teams in 17 years has made Turgeon miss special moments in his kids' lives and it has moved him to tears at times.  Finally, remember that Turgeon had a ton of family members come out to see the Terps play at Nebraska because Lincoln is a central point for most of his family that lives in Kansas and Iowa.  All of this points to Turgeon possibly not enjoying living in this area, and not enjoying the sacrifices he makes for the Maryland program if the returns are not going to be there in the future.

Turgeon is a competitor first.  He wants to win on the court more than anything, which is why he probably will not voluntarily leave for any job other than Kansas until he wins a championship here at Maryland.  But the Kent Babb article talks about Turgeon's honesty being his best quality as a coach, recruiter, and father.  Turgeon has three years left on his contract here at Maryland, and if there is no Final Four in that time then Turgeon may have to be honest with himself about what is best for him and his family.  His statements about Wichita and his tired press conferences hint that living in this area may be taking a larger toll on him that he expected.  He sees that his family is mostly located in the Midwest where he spent most of his life, and as his kids get older he may realize that it is not worth it to put himself and his family through the grind of trying to win at Maryland.  All of this can be assuaged by a Final Four appearance before his contract is up in 2019.  If that does not come, it is possible that Turgeon's personal life wins out over his desire for professional success and he walks away from the University of Maryland.

How Elitely Sweet It Is For The Terps

Savor the moment Terps fans.  This past weekend the Terps were able to beat two formidable, yet slightly over matched, teams to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since Steve Blake was at the helm.  They also were able to make this the twelfth straight NCAA tournament where they have won at least one game, which does not seem like much until you realize that the only team that has a longer streak is North Carolina at 14.  As good as it feels to revel in nostalgia, the Terps have a daunting task ahead of them if they are going to make College Park party like it is 2001.  The Final Four is a long way away given the three teams the Terps must face to get there, so let's start by analyzing the first team standing in Maryland's path because there is a good chance the Terps will not live past them.

Kansas: A bitter sweet draw for Mark Turgeon as he will face his alma mater for the first time as the Terps' signal caller.  The Jayhawks will be the toughest opponent the Terps have faced this tournament, and maybe all season, but the Terps will be Kansas's biggest challenge so far in the tournament as well.  It could prove to be a high flying game, and the Terps need to be on to keep pace.

The Bad News: Maybe you haven't heard, but Kansas is the top ranked team in the tournament and for good reason.  The Jayhawks like to play a patented Big 12 brand of basketball that involves taking and giving up a lot of shots.  The problem for the Terps is that they make a lot of the ones that they take and they defend a lot of the ones that they give up.  Kansas's regular season FG% was fifth in the nation at 49.6%, and they only gave up 39.7% to opponents.  Couple those numbers with a high assist rate, a savvy senior leader in Perry Ellis, and an 82 point per game average and you get a recipe for disaster for the Terps.  The Terps will be forced to move on defense against a team that can draw their forwards out of the paint with Ellis's range as a shooter, and with Maryland giving up a ton of offensive rebounds against Hawaii the Jawhawks should be licking their chops at the prospect of second chance points.  Kansas's quantity approach to offensive execution could lead to a massive point differential if Maryland is soft again underneath, and if they allow Kansas's defensive style to get to them.  Kansas takes intensity to the defensive end, where they are relentless on the ball defenders and like to clog the passing lanes.  The Terps do not do well against high pressure defensive teams, and Maryland will be susceptible to quick point swings if they are their normal turnover prone selves.  But as stated above the Terps present a unique challenge to Bill Self and the Jayhawks that they have not faced yet in this tournament.

The Good News: Kansas's flaws play right into Maryland's style of play.  The Terps shot 77% from the free throw line during the regular season, and while they strayed away from getting to the line late in the season they got back there with a vengeance in the first two rounds.  Kansas is all too eager to put their opponents on the charity stripe as their opponents average 21 free throws per game.  If Maryland can fill that average it may slow the game down enough for Kansas to get out of rhythm, and if the Terps can hit on their season average it may offset Kansas's ability to stymie Maryland's field goal accuracy.  While Kansas's defense is in your face, their losses have come from teams that are able to match their energy level.  Melo can get into the lane and distribute with the best of them, and the Terps proved that they can keep pace in a track meet with their game against UNC.  Granted the Terps lost that game, but hopefully they have learned something going through the Big 10 schedule.  Finally, the Terps's size in the front court will give the Jayhawks fits.  Carter and Layman can provide their own brand of inside/outside game to counter balance Ellis, and they both should be looking to drive the lane and draw contact.  Stone needs to prove his worth on the rebounding end, and Damonte Dodd will prove to be a tough defensive mathcup for Ellis.  Kansas has yet to see a team like this in the tournament, and if the Terps can start to hit on threes it could be an interesting day in Louisville.

Maryland wins if they can shoot over 25% from three, get 20 or more free throw attempts, and limit the Jayhawks to under 55 field goal attempts.  Maryland loses if they allow Kansas to be +10 or better in the rebounding margin, they have over 13 turnovers, and they allow Kansas to shoot over 20% from three.  Here's hoping the Terps are able to do the latter and stay in Kentucky for two more days. 

Maryland's Tournament Matchups

With all the hype, prognostication, denunciation, and relative conjecture that surrounds every pick in every NCAA tournament, I thought it best to try and simplify the process and break it down for all the Terps fans out there.  Considering that the college basketball groundhogs have now come out of their holes to see their shadows and said that Maryland has a good chance of not making out of the first weekend, I have decided to profile only the teams that Maryland could play this weekend in an attempt to give higher quality analysis of how they stack up against the Terps.  Here are the three teams that Maryland will, or could possibly, play this weekend and how the Terps should approach each team if they were to play them by diagnosing their play relative to the Terps' strengths and weaknesses.

South Dakota St.: One of the sleeper picks being thrown around because their nickname is the Jackrabbits and no one knows a damn thing about South Dakota except for Mount Rushmore.  NCAA tournament prognosticators are geeked up because they have that Northern Iowa vibe about them, and the Terps would do well to be cautious of this exotic team from the middle of nowhere.

The Bad News: Stouth Dakota St. likes to play at a slow and deliberate pace, and they like to play to the end of the shot clock.  They thrive on being efficient and tactical in their offensive sets, and the scouting reports say that they are very disciplined in their execution.  This is evident by their leading scorer (Mike Daum) coming off the bench, averaging 15 points and 6 rebounds in only 20 minutes per game.  They also run a lot of dribble drive kickout and pick and roll plays that try to free up shooters and give high percentage looks.  Two of their starters (George Marshall and Reed Tellinghuisen) are avid three point shooters who may look to have a field day if Maryland is their usual undisciplined selves in switching on defense.  Look for the Jackrabbits to slow the game down against the Terps, who could have a tough time on defense if South Dakota can shoot at a high percentage and limit the Terps' possessions by holding the ball.  The Jackrabbits' weaknesses, though, play right into Maryland's hands and they Terps may not have to adjust much if they get in rhythm.

The Good News: South Dakota St. is horribly undersized, with Daum being the only player over 6'6"who averages more than 20 minutes per game.  The scouting reports also note that they are not overly athletic and are susceptible to dribble penetration on defense, plus they rarely run any zone looks on defense.  Huge plus on all ends as the Terps are bigger, more athletic, and suck against any zone defense.  Turgeon should be dialing up his usual "Melo take the ball to the hoop" play and allowing Diamond Stone and Robert Carter to have a field day in the low block on an undersized team.  The Terps should attack the basket with impunity, and only settle for threes if the opportunity arises.  Jake Layman will also be a tough check for the Jackrabbits because of his size and range.  Turgeon should get him going early to try and pull some of their bigger defenders away from the basket to increase our rebounding ability, which can be suspect at times and could prove costly against a patient Jackrabbit offense.  South Dakota St. is also not particularly good in transition, so the Terps need to run when give the opportunity.

Maryland beats South Dakota St. if they just be themselves and put a premium on rebounding at both ends and not settling for long jump shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.  Maryland loses if they defend the perimeter loosely, have poor defensive switching on screens, and allow more than 10 second chance possessions due to offensive rebounds. 

Cal: The Maryland of the West except slightly better.  Cal has had it's ups and downs through the season, but they now have the eye of a couple of NCAA pundits who have the winner of this possible matchup between the Golden Bears and the Terps being a formidable opponent for Kansas.  Let's not get too ahead of ourselves, though, and focus on Cal.

The Bad News: Cal runs big. Very Big.  Their smallest starter is Senior Tyrone Wallace at 6'5", and he averages 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game.  The other four starters range from 6'6" to 7'1", and they either match or outpace the Terp's size at every position.  This is not good for Maryland who had real trouble with teams like Purdue that have big size inside that stymied their ability to drive the lane.  The Golden Bears' defense also boasts the second best 2 point FG% in the nation with teams only shooting 40.9% from inside the arc against them. Maryland is prone to self imposed scoring droughts through bad shot selection and turnovers.  It won't help that Cal will aid in that process through their tough defense.  Cal also has the nation's most dynamic freshman duo in Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown who average 12 and 15 points per game respectively.  Diamond Stone, Robert Carter, and Jake Layman will need to prove their defensive worth if Maryland is to stand a chance against The Golden Bears.  But for all Cal can give in the way of bad news, they do have shortcomings.

The Good News: Cal runs big.  Very Big.  Big enough to have very little consistent three point threats.  Jordan Mathews is their best outside shooter who averages six three points attempts per game, and Jabari Bird shoots over 40% from three for the season, but it is not their strong suit.  If Maryland can capitalize on their three point attempts, and make it a point to defend within the paint, they could force Cal out of their comfort zone.  The scouting report also emphasizes the fact that Cal can be stagnant when they lack transition opportunities and must operate in half court sets.  Sound familiar?  When the Terps are playing solid defense they have forced long possessions, and this could be especially true from a Cal team that does not assist well on most of it's baskets.  Forcing Cal to move the ball around and settle for jump shots could play in the Terps' favor if they are able to grab rebounds and win the 50-50 balls.  Finally, Cal is allowing teams to go to the free throw line at a high rate.  Opponents average about 21 free throw attempts against the Golden Bears, and for a team that shoots 75% from the foul line, Maryland should be looking to make contact any chance it gets.

Maryland wins if they shoot at least 20 free throws, they shoot above 30% from three, and win the 50-50 balls.  Maryland loses if they do not double the ball in the low post on defense, get a bland game from Layman, Carter, or Stone (they all need to show up), and if they do not score off of turnovers.


Hawaii: Aloha Haoles.  It is good to know that the Warriors will not have to travel relatively far to play in the last post season action they will see for another 2 years.  Hawaii has been banned from post season play in 2016-2017 after a former assistant was found to have falsified documents for a recruit.  This makes them desperate to make the most of the opportunity, and while they would be an easier matchup than Cal for the Terps, it will not be easy to beat them should the Warriors prove their worth against Cal.

The Bad News: The Rainbow Warriors rely on quick guard play to penetrate the lane off of screens and kick out to open shooters once the defense collapses.  Led by Junior Aaron Valdes and Senior Roderick Bobbitt, the Warriors rely on their back court speed and quickness to drive their offensive rhythm and their defensive opportunism.  Maryland, and Melo in particular, has trouble defending quick guards off of the dribble, and they also have trouble with collapsing into the key and leaving open perimeter shots due to poor defensive communication.  This is all gravy to the Warriors who are not shy about jacking up threes, and if they get hot from outside Maryland could be in for a long day. Valdes and Bobbitt also lead the way for the warriors in steals, where they are 30th in the nation averaging almost 8 steals per game, and they force around 14 turnovers per game.  Couple that with their best player (Stefan Jankovic) being a 6'11" stretch 4 who can shoot and score from the low block, and you get a recipe for disaster for a Terps team that has trouble leaving open jump shots off of dribble penetration, a propensity to throw long careless passes at the top of the 3-point line, and smaller athletes to check Jankovic.

The Good News: While the Warriors are not afraid to shoot threes, they are not particularly good at making them either.  Hawaii is shooting a lowly 32.7% from beyond the arc, which bodes well from Maryland's shaky perimeter defensive switching.  Hawaii is also lacks big scorers outside of Jankovic.  Their next two big guys are Mike Thomas and Sai Tummala who both average under 10 points per game ad are only listed at 6'7".  Carter, Layman, and Stone present a challenge because of their size and scoring ability.  Maryland should look to bully an undersized front court to settle for lower percentage shots from the outside, while at the same time deterring layups on the inside by filling their 5 block per game quota.  On the offensive end, these three create matchup problems galore for The Warriors.  One would assume that Jankovic would have to check Stone or Dodd, both of whom are able to draw fouls in the low block.  If Jankovic gets into foul trouble it may spell doom for the Rainbow Warriors.

Maryland wins if they get consistent production from their front court, limit turnovers from Trimble and Sulaimon, and swithc effectively on defense.  Maryland loses if they lose track of their defensive switches and give up easy baskets in the key sue to dribble penetration, allow Hawaii to shoot over 30% from three, and allow Hawaii to reach their 14 turnover per game average.

Hopefully, we will get to break down three more teams next week as the Terps look to make it out of the first weekend of the tournament for the first time since 2003.  Here's hoping that the Terps rekindle their first half of the season magic and make it to Louisville.