Maryland's 2017 NCAA First Round Matchup

It is hard to believe that this will be Maryland's third straight trip to the NCAA tournament after only having three appearances in the previous seven years before 2015.  It is also hard to believe because the past two appearances have been fairly forgettable due to the lackluster performances put on by Terrapin squads that were much more highly touted than this one.  It is also hard to believe because of the way this year's Terps have performed ever since they gave away the game to Purdue at home, which culminated in Turgeon calling out the toughness of his players against Northwestern this past weekend.  Yet here we are: A surprising six seed for a team that overachieved in the first half of the season but looked like it was gelling until the last 10 games where the Terps looked like the rudderless, callow, freshman filled bonanza that was expected.  But the magic the Terps had in the beginning of the season has been marginalized more than it has disappeared.  In four of the last six losses the Terps have been leading at halftime, including the game at Wisconsin.  So let us take a look at the match ups the Terps will face in the first round: The Xavier Musketeers. All information and stats come from College Basketball Reference and Joe Lunardi

The Musketeers were a preseason AP Top 10 team that fell on hard times after their starting point guard, Edmond Sumner, went down with a season ending knee injury at the end of January.  I can't imagine why the Selection Committee did not want to rekindle the rivalry between Xavier and their cross town rival, and also six seeded, Cincinnati but alas it is the Terps that must play what could be a fairly even matched game.

The Bad News: Xavier is a big team that is good at rebounding.  They average 12.6 offensive rebounds per game which is good for 29th best in the NCAA, while the Terps allow 10.7 offensive rebounds per game which ranks 303rd.  The one area that has killed the Terps over the last 10 games has been allowing second chance points and not being able to grab rebounds on both ends, and Xavier does this just about as good as anyone in the country.  Xavier out rebounds their opponents by 6 on average, so it could be the Wisconsin game all over again if we cannot box people out.  That could also be a tall order given the size of Xavier's starting back court.  PG Quentin Goodin is the smallest of the Musketeers's starting lineup at 6'4", which may cause some match up dilemmas for Anthony Cowan who only runs a generous 6'1".  Goodin has a penchant for heating up from outside, and given that their two best scorers (Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura) are also average over 30% from three the Terps need to be wary of the shooters on the perimeter.  Look for the Musketeers to be aggressive in their outside shooting against whomever is matched up with Trimble or Cowan in order to exploit their height advantage and offensive rebounding acumen.

The Good News: With the loss of Edmond Sumner, the Musketeers lost their best ball handler and have been susceptible to turnovers.  The Terps need to capitalize on points off of these turnovers, which has been a problem as of late.  Xavier also is poor at defending the three point shot.  They are in the bottom third in the country in three point baskets allowed, and the Terps are not shy about stroking it from the outside.  Jackson and Huerter need to step up and hit some outside shots to stretch out the Xavier defense.  One other area that Xavier struggles with is the amount of assists they allow per game.  The Musketeers allow their opponents to get 14 assisted baskets per game, which ranks 303rd in the country.  The Terps need to look to create shots off the pass rather than dribble penetration, and do not be surprised if we see Ivan Bender get equal minutes to Dodd in order to utilize his superior passing skills in the post.  Finally, the loss of Sumner also made the Musketeers's back court depth non existent.  The Musketeers only rotate 8 players, and the three coming off the bench are all forwards.  Dodd and Bender need to be cognizant of that fact if the Musketeers decide to go big to get the Terps big men into foul trouble, but if the Terps can draw some early fouls on their guards it could slow down the Xavier offense.

Other than these differences, the Terps and Musketeers are two evenly matched teams.  This game will certainly show us what type of meddle the Terps are made of.  The Terps lose if they are limp on their rebounding attempts and allow Xavier to get numerous second chance opportunities.  Another Melo Trimble show may also spell disaster for the Terps as they will need to spread the ball around to be successful.  Huerter will also need to be on his best behavior because if he gets into foul trouble early we may not have a better defender to check Trevon Bluiett.  The Terps win if they score off of the pass and draw some early fouls on their guards to put pressure on their bench.  Justin Jackson will need to be the player he was six weeks ago, because if he can start hitting his outside shot it could help the Terps rebounding by drawing their forwards away from the basket.  Finally, the Terps need to be aggressive defending the ball by pressuring the ball handlers and not making it easy for the Musketeers to move the ball on offense.

Let's hope it is not one and done for the Terps and they can play a de facto away game against either Florida State or Florida Gulf Coast on Saturday.