The hiring of Jay Gruden has created a whirlwind of
speculation as to what his offense will look like here in Washington and, more
importantly, how Robert Griffin will fit into this system and develop as a
quarterback. Gruden’s naming of
Griffin as the starter in his inaugural press conference poured more gasoline
onto this speculation inferno because now Gruden is pot committed. Barring injury, Robert Griffin III will
be the vehicle for the Jay Gruden offense here in DC. We can speculate about the details of this offense, but we
may be able to get an idea of production output for Griffin by looking at the
quarterback who last helmed Jay Gruden’s offensive vision. Andy Dalton. Before we analyze stats, lets look at what Gruden was
dealing with when he drafted Dalton and what he can expect in Griffin by
analyzing their draft profiles as provided by ESPN Insider. Guess
which one is which.
a) College
offense does not translate to the NFL game. Has a lot to learn about
identifying coverage and hot reads. Has very simple reads. There's not
much tape of him checking from one side of the field to the other. Lack
of ideal height leads to some problems seeing entire field at times.
However, is an intelligent and disciplined individual. Has a great
work ethic and is capable of digesting a new system quickly.
b) Will have a
learning curve coming from shotgun heavy spread-formation offense that feeds
him a lot of pre-snap reads from the sideline. But he is a gym rat with very
good natural football intelligence. Does a great job of keeping his head down
the field when scrambling. Has improved as a decision maker but still makes
some questionable decisions throwing into traffic.
Have you guessed? That’s right. Griffin is A and Dalton is B. It is interesting that they said Dalton would have a “learning
curve” coming from a spread formation. It was Gruden’s job to make that curve less
treacherous, and he turned Dalton’s “learning curve” into 3,398 yards, 20 TD/13
Int, and a 58.1% completion rate on 516 attempts plus a payoff berth. Not a bad showing, and he has continued
to improve in yards, completions, and touchdowns every year under Gruden
culminating this past season by throwing for 4,296 yrds, 33 TD/20 Int, and a
61.9% completion rate on 586 attempts and another playoff berth. So Gruden knows how to work with
quarterbacks who come from spread looks, and he is essentially getting one in
Griffin. You don’t believe
me? Reread his draft profile.
Has
Griffin progressed since his days at Baylor? Needs to learn to identify coverage, only runs simple reads,
not good at going through progressions; this looks like it could have been
written anytime over the past two years, and it is essentially what Gruden will
be inheriting in his future quarterback.
What offset these deficiencies in Griffin’s first year was the
information I left out of his profile to not make his identity obvious. Here is what was left out of Griffin’s
profile:
His mobility also gives him more room for error than many
other quarterback prospects
Griffin’s athleticism was the sole reason the read option
worked so well, and it is also the reason why Griffin has not improved on any
of the weaknesses outlined in his draft profile. It is also something that Gruden did not have at his
disposal with Dalton in Cincinnati. There is a trade off, however, and it is the task that Gruden
must complete in the development of Robert Griffin.
Knows how to make progression reads and effectively checks
down to second and third targets. Consistently looks off the safeties and does
not telegraph many of his throws
This was the omission I had in Dalton’s profile. It is almost a direct contradiction to
Griffin’s current skill set, and the task set before Gruden will be to teach
Griffin these skills. Gruden has
given up a quarterback with superior passing awareness for one who has superior
athletic ability. Gruden alluded
to Griffin’s athletic prowess as being a major factor in his excitement to work
with Griffin, but it is Griffin’s development as a passer that will define
Gruden’s tenure here in Washington.
Gruden has proven with Dalton that he can make an honest passer out of a
spread style quarterback. He now
must prove that he can do the same with a quarterback whose passing skills have
been hindered by the over reliance on his physical ability by both himself and
his prior professional coaching staff.
Dalton’s progression under Gruden gives some shape to the hazy picture
that is this arranged marriage between Gruden and Griffin. I think everyone would be elated if
Gruden could get Griffin to turn in a season like Dalton had in 2013, and Gruden’s
track record in Cincinnati gives us more than blind hope that this could
happen. The speculation will
continue to burn out of control until we get to see the actual product in
September, but Andy Dalton may give us a glimmer of hope that Gruden can return
Robert Griffin to elite status.
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